NFL Playoff Projections Update: Patriots Rule, Carolina Rising

NFL Playoff Projections Update: Patriots Rule, Carolina Rising

October 30, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Note: These projections were pulled on Thursday morning 10/29, and don’t reflect the result of the Week 8 Dolphins/Patriots game on Thursday night.

With several of the top teams on bye last week, there weren’t any drastic changes in the Super Bowl projections. New England still has a firm lead over the rest of the NFL after defeating the Jets, while Carolina’s Super Bowl win odds jumped the most out of the current top contenders.

Here’s how our projections look after Week 7, with several notable changes since last week’s games.

About Our NFL Season Projections

Before we get started, some brief background on our projections:

The numbers in this post are pulled directly from our 2015 NFL projected standings page, which is updated every single day until the end of the seasonTo make season projections, we’ve built a computer simulation engine that steps through all the remaining games one by one. Win-loss odds for future games are driven by our NFL team predictive rankings.To help smooth out the potential effects of randomness in the simulation results, we run thousands of season simulations every day, and average the results to come up with our posted projections. As a result, you’ll rarely see us forecasting very extreme results (e.g. a team going 16-0 or 1-15), even though it’s bound to happen some years thanks to good or bad luck.You can look at projections pages under every team section, like our Patriots projections page, to get a much more detailed sense of the range of possible outcomes our simulations generated for each team.An important feature of our season simulations is that they also incorporate variability into each team’s predictive rating, both to help model for unexpected situations (e.g. a team’s starting QB getting injured) and as an acknowledgement that our team ratings are never going to be perfectly accurate, especially as team dynamics change over the course of a season.If you’re curious, you can also view our NFL preseason projections for 2015

2016 Super Bowl Odds: The Top 5 Entering Week 8

Team	Odds to Win Super Bowl	Change Since Last Week
New England	26.9%	-0.1%
Green Bay	19.9%	+0.0%
Denver	12.9%	+0.6%
Cincinnati	9.5%	+0.7%
Carolina	6.4%	+1.3%
Arizona	6.0%	+0.1%

As mentioned, there have been minimal changes at the top since last week with three of the top five on bye during Week 7.Carolina has overtaken Arizona with their second straight win vs. a team in the top 10 of our predictive rankings (Seattle, Philadelphia). Carolina now has two more matchups vs. division leading teams over the next two weeks, facing both Indianapolis and Green Bay at home.

AFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
AFC East	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-New England	6	0	13.5	2.5	99.6%	+0.9%	91.3%	50.1%
y-NY Jets	4	2	10	6	74.4%	+2.6%	7.3%	1.8%
Miami	3	3	7.7	8.3	21.9%	+9.7%	1.0%	0.2%
Buffalo	3	4	7.1	8.9	16.5%	-10.2%	0.4%	0.0%
AFC North	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Cincinnati	6	0	12.3	3.7	97.5%	+0.8%	85.4%	20.6%
y-Pittsburgh	4	3	9.1	6.9	52.5%	-10.3%	13.8%	0.3%
Baltimore	1	6	5.8	10.2	3.7%	-1.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Cleveland	2	5	4.9	11.1	1.2%	-1.1%	0.3%	0.0%
AFC South	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Indianapolis	3	4	7.8	8.2	74.3%	-6.9%	74.0%	0.1%
Houston	2	5	5.8	10.2	15.7%	+0.2%	15.1%	0.0%
Jacksonville	2	5	4.9	11.1	6.0%	+4.6%	5.6%	0.0%
Tennessee	1	5	4.6	11.4	5.5%	+0.4%	5.3%	0.0%
AFC West	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Denver	6	0	12.5	3.5	97.4%	+0.4%	95.8%	26.9%
Kansas City	2	5	7.1	8.9	16.5%	+8.8%	1.5%	0.0%
Oakland	3	3	6.6	9.4	11.6%	+7.4%	1.3%	0.0%
San Diego	2	5	6.2	9.8	5.7%	-6.4%	1.4%	0.0%

x-Projected division winner     y-Projected Wild Card team

AFC Top Seed

The Patriots have better than a 50-50 chance of claiming the AFC’s top seed, and remain by far the top team in our predictive ratings. As of now, they’re projected for at least one more win than either Denver or Cincinnati.

AFC Division Races

AFC East. Obviously, New England’s chance of winning the AFC East increased by beating the Jets last week. They still don’t have the best chance of winning their division (a claim that belongs to Denver), but have a sizable two game lead over the Jets, plus the head-to-head tiebreaker.AFC North. The Bengals were idle in Week 7, but Pittsburgh’s loss at Kansas City gave Cincinnati some cushion in the division race. The two division rivals will face each other this week for the first time this season, and Pittsburgh could get a boost with the expected return of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It’s a critical game for the Steelers, as Cincinnati currently has an 85%-plus chance of taking the division.AFC South. Many expected the South to be the AFC’s weakest division again this season, but it was hard to fathom it would be this bad. We still project the Colts to capture the division crown (74.3% odds currently) despite a final winning percentage projection of just under .500. Houston is coming off a blowout loss to Miami, losing running back Arian Foster in the process, but they still have hope, with a 15%+ chance of winning the division just one game out of first place.AFC West. The Broncos have a difficult remaining schedule, but they’re running away with the division with a three game lead. They currently have the best odds to win their division of any team at 95.8%. Their toughest test of the season to this point will be Sunday night vs. Green Bay.

AFC Wild Card

Despite losing to New England on Sunday, the Jets are the clear frontrunners for the top Wild Card spot in the AFC and have a nearly 3-in-4 chance of making the playoffs.Pittsburgh was able to make due at quarterback during Ben Roethlisberger’s four game absence, and currently have better than a one win lead over Miami for the second Wild Card. They still have a difficult schedule the rest of the way, though, with two games vs. Cincinnati, plus Seattle, Indianapolis, and Denver.

NFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
NFC East	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Philadelphia	3	4	8.3	7.7	44.6%	-13.6%	41.3%	0.0%
NY Giants	4	3	8	8	36.5%	+9.2%	32.7%	0.1%
Dallas	2	4	6.7	9.3	19.7%	-8.0%	17.8%	0.0%
Washington	3	4	6.1	9.9	9.2%	+1.8%	8.2%	0.0%
NFC North	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Green Bay	6	0	12.7	3.3	97.4%	-0.7%	88.2%	46.9%
y-Minnesota	4	2	9.2	6.8	48.3%	+3.1%	11.5%	2.9%
Chicago	2	4	5.7	10.3	1.7%	-0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
Detroit	1	6	4.7	11.3	0.3%	-1.6%	0.1%	0.0%
NFC South	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Carolina	6	0	12	4	93.3%	+5.3%	61.5%	30.1%
y-Atlanta	6	1	11.2	4.8	85.9%	+0.8%	36.5%	13.7%
New Orleans	3	4	8	8	16.8%	+5.0%	1.8%	0.2%
Tampa Bay	2	4	5.1	10.9	1.5%	-2.1%	0.1%	0.0%
NFC West	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Arizona	5	2	10.1	5.9	69.4%	+0.7%	51.9%	5.8%
Seattle	3	4	8.9	7.1	43.8%	+1.9%	29.2%	0.1%
St Louis	3	3	8.2	7.8	30.2%	+1.3%	18.4%	0.2%
San Francisco	2	5	5.1	10.9	1.5%	-2.8%	0.6%	0.0%

x-Projected division winner     y-Projected Wild Card team

NFC Top Seed

Green Bay’s chance of taking the top seed is hovering around 47% for the third consecutive week, and they could get a nice boost if they can win at Denver this week. The undefeated Panthers have been pushing up their top seed percentage over the last two weeks, but still trail Green Bay at 30.1%.

NFC Division Races

NFC East. Despite currently trailing the Giants by one game, the Eagles have an 8.6% edge in the division winner projections. Philadelphia rates 3.7 points higher than the Giants in our current predictive ratings, and the Eagles also have a weaker future schedule.NFC North. Green Bay stands as the clear leader in the North, with an 88% chance of winning the division over Minnesota. Their season win total projection is currently 3.5 wins higher than the Vikings.NFC South. Atlanta has a slightly easier future schedule, but Carolina has a significant lead in the division projection, as the Panthers rate as the better team (by 2.2 points in our ratings). The teams still have two head-to-head matchups late in the year to help decide the division winner.NFC West. Arizona has lost two of their last four games, but they still have better than 50% odds to win the West with Seattle still under .500. Still, the Cardinals will need to stay on their game, since entering Week 8 they face the toughest future schedule in the NFL: Seattle twice, at St. Louis, whom they lost to in Week 4, and Cincinnati, Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Green Bay.

NFC Wild Card

Atlanta has struggled over their last three games, beating Washington in overtime, losing to the Saints, and beating Tennessee by three points. But when it comes to the Wild Card race, wins are wins, and Atlanta’s playoff prospects are still looking great with a 6-1 record and an 86% chance of making the postseason.The Vikings are just ahead of Seattle for the second Wild Card spot, with a projection of 9.2 wins compared to Seattle’s projection of 8.9 wins.

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