I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Chargers vs. Titans.
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NFL Betting Primer: Chargers vs. Titans
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans – Spread Line: TEN 2.5
Ryan Tannehill was 8-5 toward the under as the team’s starter dating back to last season. Just twice the total went over 48 points. I was firmly on the under last week for the Titans-Saints matchup and it came through with flying colors.
Tannehill was a disaster with three picks, 3 sacks and a grand total of 198 passing yards €“ behind an overmatched OL versus a mid-Saints defense line. He held the ball too long €“ 3.09 average time per throw €“ and that kept the Titans’ offense from moving. They were shut out in the red zone and went 2-12 on third downs. (16.7%). Horrible.
I think we see the Titans get back to the basics with the Derrick Henry run game script in Week 2, versus a Chargers run defense that has traditionally struggled versus the run since Branon Stanley took over as the head coach. Many will point to the high passing yards that the Chargers gave up in Week 1 against the high-flying Miami Dolphins offense, but Miami and Tennessee couldn’t be more different offenses. Tannehill doesn’t get the ball out nearly as quickly as Tua Tagovailoa, and hardly has the same receiving speed weapons at his disposal. Tannehill totaled 62 air yards versus the Saints. The Chargers defense faced 306 air yards versus Miami.
Still, even with Tannehill at quarterback, I hardly feel comfortable back in Staley’s Chargers flying West to East for a 1 PM ET kickoff. Like last week, Mike Vrabel has the big coaching advantage. But last year in this matchup €“ played in LA where there really are no home-field advantages €“ the Chargers were victorious 17-14. Herbert threw for 313 yards but tossed zero TDs and was intercepted twice.
However, my biggest conviction still lies with the Bolts QB in this matchup versus a patchwork Titans’ secondary that Derek Carr threw for 305 passing yards and 9.2 yards per attempt against in Week 1. But New Orleans stalled in the red zone, limiting their points to 17. LA’s red-zone offense is better than the Saints, scoring TDs on four of their 5 red-zone possessions in Week 1 versus Miami.
With Austin Ekeler banged up and the Titans the quintessential "run-funnel defense" my bet is on Justin Hebert to get the Chargers a road win. With the line moved to -2.5 at some books, I think they can pull out the field goal victory on the back of their franchise quarterback in a very favorable matchup. Again, this team scored 34 points last week (4th-most) but just happened to give up 36 versus a high-powered unit. Had they just won the shootout (as they should have) the line wouldn’t be nearly this close. Grounding penalty, J.C. Jackson’s dumb pass interference penalty killed the Chargers.
LA averaged nearly 25 points per game last season on the road versus 21.8 at home. But because I don’t think the offense necessarily needs to be pushed by the Titans’ "let’s run this through the mud" philosophy, I lean toward the total under. The only way I see it gets over is if Derrick Henry rips off a bunch of huge runs to finish out the game in the second half.
But because the Chargers are undoubtedly the most painful team to bet on, I’ll likely be getting the majority of exposure to his matchup through the props market.
I like the overs on both of the Chargers’ WRs. Keenan Allen has gone over 67.5 yards (including last week) in seven of his last ten games. Mike Williams has gone over 58.5 receiving yards in his last four games where he has been healthy. Both guys hit the "over" in their matchup versus the Titans last year, when Austin Ekeler caught just two passes.
Both WRs should gobble up targets if Austin Ekeler is limited or not playing in this matchup.
- My picks: Chargers -2.5 (-115 BetMGM), Under 45.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook), Chargers over 23.5 (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook), First half under 22.5 (-112 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Keenan Allen over 67.5 receiving yards (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook), Mike Williams over 58.5 receiving yards (Prizepicks.com)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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