Baylor, Iowa State Make Big Moves — College Football Rankings & Projections Update

Baylor, Iowa State Make Big Moves — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

October 8, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Head coach Matt Campbell and Iowa State are back in our Top 25 (Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 7 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

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College Football Week 7 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 7

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
71	Oregon St	Pac-12	-1.5	3.4	3.7	1.2	W at UCLA 48-31
22	Iowa State	Big 12	11.7	3.3	7.4	1.0	W vs. TX Christian 49-24
25	Baylor	Big 12	9.2	3.2	9.1	1.1	W at Kansas St 31-12
81	VA Tech	ACC	-3.6	3.1	6.0	1.2	W at Miami (FL) 42-35
109	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-13.1	2.9	5.7	1.2	W vs. Arkansas St 52-38
108	Central Mich	MAC	-13.1	2.8	6.1	1.0	W vs. E Michigan 42-16
29	Maryland	Big Ten	8.5	2.8	6.2	0.5	W at Rutgers 48-7
100	Florida Intl	CUSA	-11.1	2.6	5.5	0.5	W vs. U Mass 44-0
105	W Kentucky	CUSA	-11.4	2.4	5.7	0.8	W at Old Dominion 20-3
59	Mississippi	SEC	1.1	2.2	4.7	0.5	W vs. Vanderbilt 31-6

Oregon State got a big win at UCLA for their second win of the season. That’s as many wins already as the Beavers had all of last year, and more than they had two years ago.

Baylor and Iowa State both got big wins in the Big 12, with Iowa State winning by 25 over TCU and Baylor going to Kansas State and winning by 19. Baylor joins Oklahoma and Texas (who meet this week) as the only remaining undefeated teams in the conference.

Maryland is on quite the roller coaster in 2019. They have now won all three games by at least 40 points, but also lost by 59 points a week ago to Penn State.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 7

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
110	E Michigan	MAC	-13.7	-4.0	6.2	-1.2	L at Central Mich 42-16
86	Arkansas St	Sun Belt	-6.4	-3.0	6.8	-1.1	L at Georgia State 52-38
52	Kansas St	Big 12	2.7	-3.0	6.0	-1.1	L vs. Baylor 31-12
33	TX Christian	Big 12	7.2	-2.8	6.3	-0.9	L at Iowa State 49-24
119	Rutgers	Big Ten	-19.0	-2.8	1.7	-0.3	L vs. Maryland 48-7
69	UCLA	Pac-12	-1.0	-2.8	3.0	-1.2	L vs. Oregon St 48-31
36	Miami (FL)	ACC	6.4	-2.6	6.6	-1.3	L vs. VA Tech 42-35
130	U Mass	Independent I-A	-38.2	-2.5	1.3	-0.1	L at Florida Intl 44-0
126	Connecticut	AAC	-24.3	-2.5	2.3	-0.4	L vs. S Florida 48-22
92	Illinois	Big Ten	-8.0	-2.5	3.5	-0.5	L at Minnesota 40-17

The temporary feeling that Chip Kelly’s UCLA team was turning things around didn’t last long. The loss at home to Oregon State dropped the Bruins to 1-5 for the year.

UMass has already been locked into the No. 130 (aka, last place) spot in FCS, and their rating is dropping even further, as they are now more than 7 points worse than every other FCS team.

Meanwhile, Rutgers is all the way down to No. 119 in the rankings after getting crushed by Maryland. That easily puts them as the lowest rated team from a Power Five conference.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a teams win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	37.5
2	Alabama	SEC	32.5
3	Georgia	SEC	27.0
4	Clemson	ACC	26.7
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	26.3
6	Penn State	Big Ten	26.3
7	LSU	SEC	25.7
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	24.4
9	Auburn	SEC	21.3
10	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	20.9
11	Oregon	Pac-12	18.3
12	Florida	SEC	17.6
13	Michigan	Big Ten	16.5
14	Michigan St	Big Ten	16.1
15	Central FL	AAC	15.5
16	Iowa	Big Ten	14.6
17	Texas	Big 12	14.4
18	Missouri	SEC	14.3
19	Washington	Pac-12	14.2
20	Texas A&M	SEC	13.9
21	Utah	Pac-12	13.2
22	Iowa State	Big 12	11.7
23	Cincinnati	AAC	10.6
24	USC	Pac-12	10.6
25	Baylor	Big 12	9.2

Who is better, the Big Ten or the SEC? Six Big Ten teams and seven teams from the SEC make our Top 25, though one of the SEC teams is ineligible for a bowl game (Missouri). We could see several compelling bowl matchups between those two conferences.

Only 2.6 points separate No. 3 Georgia and No. 8 Oklahoma, and that’s less than the difference between Oklahoma and No. 9 Auburn. So there’s a pretty close pack at the top of college football right now.

Boise State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Arizona State, SMU, and Memphis are ranked in the AP Top 25 but do not make our list this week. Three of those teams did not play last week (Arizona State, Wake Forest, Virginia), two of the others played teams ranked outside our Top 100 (Boise State over UNLV, Memphis over LA-Monroe) and SMU won by 6 points at home over now-No. 79 Tulsa.

CFB Week 7 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	88%	Virginia	5%	North Carolina	3%
Big 12	Oklahoma	68%	Texas	16%	Baylor	7%
Big Ten	Ohio State	67%	Wisconsin	23%	Penn State	9%
Pac 12	Oregon	55%	Utah	16%	USC	15%
SEC	Alabama	48%	Georgia	32%	LSU	13%
American	Cincinnati	40%	Memphis	16%	UCF	16%
C USA	Florida Atlantic	44%	North Texas	15%	Southern Miss	12%
MAC	Toledo	41%	Ohio	23%	Western Michigan	12%
MWC	Boise State	44%	Hawaii	18%	Utah State	15%
Sun Belt	La Lafayette	45%	Appalachian State	43%	Arkansas St	5%

Cincinnati made the big move this week, beating UCF to move into the favorite’s role in the American Conference.

Oklahoma and Texas, the two favorites in the Big 12, meet this week in the Red River Rivalry game. The top two teams in our projections in terms of odds to win the Mountain West, Hawaii and Boise State, also play head-to-head this week.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
81	VA Tech	ACC	-3.6	63%	37%	W at Miami (FL) 42-35
38	Stanford	Pac-12	6.0	73%	32%	W vs. Washington 23-13
109	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-13.1	55%	31%	W vs. Arkansas St 52-38
108	Central Mich	MAC	-13.1	68%	30%	W vs. E Michigan 42-16
62	Texas Tech	Big 12	0.4	56%	27%	W vs. Oklahoma St 45-35
105	W Kentucky	CUSA	-11.4	53%	21%	W at Old Dominion 20-3
96	Ball State	MAC	-9.4	50%	21%	W at N Illinois 27-20
22	Iowa State	Big 12	11.7	93%	20%	W vs. TX Christian 49-24
51	Arizona	Pac-12	2.7	70%	19%	W at Colorado 35-30
103	Middle Tenn	CUSA	-11.2	48%	18%	W vs. Marshall 24-13

Virginia Tech got a big bounce-back win over Miami to move to 3-2 and revive their hopes of getting to a bowl game. Stanford moved to 3-3 with an upset win over Washington. Texas Tech got their biggest win of the season by beating Oklahoma State to get to 3-2.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Rank	Team	Conference	1 or 0 Losses
4	Clemson	ACC	95%
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	92%
2	Alabama	SEC	81%
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	73%
3	Georgia	SEC	71%
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten	63%
32	Boise State	Mountain West	58%
7	LSU	SEC	49%
6	Penn State	Big Ten	43%
47	App State	Sun Belt	30%
43	LA Lafayette	Sun Belt	30%
10	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	27%
28	Memphis	AAC	26%
35	S Methodist	AAC	26%
11	Oregon	Pac-12	20%
72	Toledo	MAC	20%

Six Power Five schools have at least a 50% chance or more of getting to 11-1 in the regular season. After that, only two others (LSU and Penn State) have at least a 30% chance of getting to 11 wins before a conference title game, so that right now represents your most likely CFB Playoff contenders.

Oregon is lurking with a 20% chance of running the table before the Pac-12 title game, and represents that conference’s best hope to get in the playoff discussion.

Boise State continues to lead all other schools outside the Power Five in odds of getting t0 11-1 or better. Memphis and SMU (both undefeated in the American Conference) are also in the mix.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 7, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 7 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.

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