MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (7/25)

It’s slim pickings for sports bettors on Thursday, with only eight MLB games scheduled for play. However, there’s still value to be had from a home run prop bet perspective, as dependable sluggers and advantageous showdowns are lined up for action. Here’s a look at three players set up to crush a ball over the […]

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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

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(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Manny Machado (+330)

The Padres’ offense has an opportunity to explode at the plate on Thursday afternoon. That is because it will face Washington’s Patrick Corbin (2-9, 5.35 ERA) at Nationals Park. The veteran right-hander has allowed the most earned runs in the league (66) and will be taking the mound in a stadium that ranks fifth in offensive park factors since the start of the 2022 season. The baseball should be flying on a warm summer day.

Manny Machado is the San Diego pro to back here. Corbin has been tagged for 13 dingers and a .507 slugging percentage by right-handed batters this year. Not only that, but Machado has already homered off Corbin in his career and has posted a ridiculous slash line of .378/.426/.643 in 23 games played at Nationals Park. Bank on Machado giving Padres fans watching from home on the West Coast something to cheer about.

Anthony Santander (+400)

Anthony Santander’s power has been on full display when the Orioles go on the road. The outfielder has tallied 16 homers in away contests, which trails only New York’s Aaron Judge for the league lead. That total rose thanks to the three long balls Santander racked up at Globe Life Field in Baltimore’s first series coming out of the All-Star break. Momentum is on his side ahead of a juicy matchup versus the Marlins.

Miami is handing the baseball to rookie Roddery Munoz on Thursday. The 24-year-old’s 6.1% home run percentage sits well above the league average (2.9%) through his first 56 innings in the majors. Keep in mind Munoz has given up 16 extra-base hits and a 1.072 OPS to left-handed batters through 114 plate appearances. That’s a statistic Santander can exploit as a talented switch hitter. His odds to log two jacks check in at +4000 for those feeling risky.

Freddie Freeman (+600)

San Francisco’s Logan Webb has been a different pitcher at Oracle Park versus other venues during his six-year MLB career. After all, his 2.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at home are stellar compared to his lackluster 4.07 ERA and 1.24 WHIP on the road. That’s crucial to note as Webb draws a clash against division rival Dodgers in Los Angeles next. Expect a rowdy environment as the historic stadium is bringing in an average of over 48,000 fans per game.

Bettors should feel comfortable trusting a few different L.A. bruisers on Thursday. However, Freddie Freeman’s .412/.444/.588 slash line in 34 at-bats against Webb makes him stand out from the pack. The three-time Silver Slugger also ranks seventh among qualified hitters in launch angle sweet spot percentage (42.8%) this campaign. An ability to consistently smack line drives combined with the knowledge of a pitcher’s tendencies creates a recipe for success.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: