Seth’s Week 6 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

Seth’s Week 6 Daily Fantasy Analysis and FanDuel Lineup

October 16, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Another disappointing week landing just outside the 50th percentile, and my profits continue to falter.

I took two cheap risks on Anthony Dixon and Owen Daniels last week, but neither paid off. Dixon scored only 5.4 points, and Daniels didn’t contribute anything.

I liked the logic of taking Daniels, and certainly don’t regret that buy. He was facing the worst defense vs. tight ends, and was extremely affordable at $4,900. However, Denver’s passing game sputtered again in Week 5.

My results so far:

My Week 6 Strategy

Exploiting the matchups didn’t work for me as well as hoped last week, as mentioned, with Daniels failing to get a catch. That doesn’t mean that I’ll stop putting my emphasis on playing matchups, but rather, try to avoid bigger risks in 50/50 and double up contests in which I participate with this lineup.

To review my normal strategy:

Start with Vegas over/under linesEvaluate each team’s recent fantasy points allowed vs. each positionEvaluate salaries and contest format

The highest Vegas-implied point totals this week include:

The lowest Vegas-implied point totals include:

The Result: My Lineup for Week 6

Here’s my lineup for Week 6:

I’m going especially risk-averse this week with Tom Brady and Julian Edelman. As usual, the Patriots are among the highest Vegas-implied scores. Brady has the most points per game so far this season (26.0), and his lowest total was 22.72 points. New England’s opponent, Indianapolis, is in the middle of the pack with 18.97 points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but they’ve also allowed the seventh most passing yards per game. Brady is as safe as it gets despite the hefty price.Similarly, Edelman has the third most points per game among available wideouts (19.3), and hasn’t scored less than 12.5 points in a game this season. A target hog, Edelman has averaged nearly 12 targets per game, while the Colts are averaging the third most points allowed to wide receivers among teams playing this weekend.Charcandrick West replaces Jamaal Charles as the Chiefs’ versatile running back. While the Chiefs could go running back by committee to replace Charles, West’s style far better emulates Charles and he looked impressive during the preseason, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. West has been first to give Charles a blow over the last few weeks, and is a safe bet for at least 15 touches on Sunday. I really like the upside for the minimal price, especially since the Vikes have allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game of available teams.Matt Forte is another consistent play, and one with a favorable matchup vs. Detroit. The Lions have allowed the sixth most rushing yards per game among available teams, while Forte has accumulated double-digit points in four out of five games this season. The likely return of deep threat Alshon Jeffery could allow Forte to get more favorable running looks vs. Detroit, as well.DeAndre Hopkins has the second most points among available wide receivers (19.8 per game), and has scored over 20 points in four of five games. He currently leads the NFL in targets, averaging 15 per game, and saw an uptick in receptions with Arian Foster’s full return last week. Oh, he also leads the NFL in receiving yards per game (115.6). Wideouts really haven’t had their way with Jacksonville’s defense to this point, but I’m willing to overlook the matchup given Hopkins’ consistency.Rueben Randle is a home run threat with Odell Beckham Jr. likely a game-time decision for the Giants. If Beckham Jr. is unable to go, Randle becomes the No. 1 wideout against an Eagles defense that’s allowed the fourth most points to wideouts of teams playing this week. The possibility of getting a huge uptick in targets this week is worth the risk at $5,700, and he’s also scored in two of the last three games.I de-prioritized tight end while focusing on consistency at other positions. With the money available, I felt Zach Ertz had the most upside. The Giants have allowed the third most points to tight ends of teams playing this week, and the Eagles have the third most Vegas-implied points this week. Like the rest of the Eagles receivers, Ertz has been a fantasy bust so far but certainly has ability as the team’s third-leading receiver last year and second-leading receiver this year.The Jets have turned into a strong defense again this season, and get a nice boost this week with the return of DT Sheldon Richardson. Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins has thrown six picks through five games, and the Skins are tied for the lowest Vegas-implied point total this week.Among the cheapest kickers available, Robbie Gould is a potential bargain with double-digit points in three games this season. Of course, he won’t have to contend with weather at Detroit’s dome, either.

That’s my lineup for Week 6. Don’t forget to compete against me in this week’s TRFC contest!

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